NUH YILMAZ
Director of the Washington SETA
NATO's 24 summit was held in Lisbon last November. What NATO's orientation during the next 10 years, I will be discussing the peak of distribution of resources, so far, was one of the most prominent of the peaks.
The importance of NATO operations in Afghanistan will shape what appears in the summit, the NATO presence in this country how to continue, with the NATO-Russia relations akıbetiydi Missile Shield project. However, the real importance of the summit the next 10 years will determine the strategic concept of NATO, that is, determine the fact that the perception of threat was coming.
In other words, NATO's' red for the next 10 years re-written in the Book of the summit of the organization how to solve the ongoing crisis of legitimacy in the world will continue to shape the global order of the problem nor discussed the military dimension. Discussion in Turkey is facing a little bit to Turkey as a result of psychological repression, internal politics more as a forward-looking output.
In short, if necessary, to remember, in the process of NATO, the Cold War, 2nd After World War II, almost all of Western Europe's Soviet Union lost the war to protect points of resistance, on the other hand the U.S. domination of Europe that the arbitration was established as a military organization. The main threat to NATO or the USSR's military presence of the keystone. This moved the ideological dimension of the anti-communist military presence in the (liberal democracy, free market or not), was established as one of the most important pillars of NATO, but not essential. Therefore, the priority of military threat, the member countries 'axis change' against the possibility of military coups are often excused by seeing, had a character that emphasizes safety.
Military threat is lifted?
NATO is the most important turning point in the history of the Cold War's end. Despite the removal of the causes of asset liquidation resisting the threat of NATO military structure of the legitimacy problem stems from here. Currently debated the issue of NATO's versions of these names being given from time to time uğraşlarına consists of solving the problem of legitimacy.
On the other hand, 2 World War II can be installed in case of liquidation of a possible alternative to NATO's conditions, established as an organization is extremely costly, as well as almost a new world war could lead to a serious issue due to the (extremely realistic and pragmatic reasons) rather than the liquidation of NATO's restructuring needs have been noted.
This is needed for reconstruction, no longer a secret NATO's military structure from being read, a security organization to be a contemporary take the right path, for that is that member countries need public support. NATO's strategic concept that we discussed in our part of the experts, academics and journalists as civilians, a little also, therefore, developed to overcome the problem of the legitimacy of NATO's public diplomacy as part of one of the methods, engages in discussion with them on shared. For this reason, NATO's strategic documents by the year 1991 was opened to the public, back to the military dimension in mind, the parties to the debate were amplified.
New World Order and NATO
However, the situation is somewhat different this time. Discussion of the strategic concept of 1991 feet, yet the shocks continued aftershocks of the Cold War environment, a serious opposition within NATO or the transatlantic axis to have a different perception of security was not possible. In 1999 the United States is the only super power, NATO's expansion project of the EU as part of the people watched the hegemonic projects in co-ordination, "humanitarian intervention" was a time in such instruments are still solved the problem of legitimacy. In 2010, the situation is very different in many ways.
These differences need to look briefly;
1) determines the post-September 11 joint security and threat perception of the transatlantic axis cracked. A terrorist attack on its territory to the United States 5 NATO is due to drug response requires, subject to similar attacks on the United Kingdom, countries such as Spain did not see it necessary,
2) strengthened throughout the 2000s, Russia Georgia War of 2008 with the Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Black Sea and the changing perception of security, NATO enlargement took the set.
3) The 2008 financial crisis, such as the cost structures of NATO, has become questionable.
4) The 2008 financial crisis, rising regional powers (the BRICs), not only financially but also in military terms, has become important.
5) Non-state actors in the conventional sense of security has raised the need to detect outside of the frame.
6) about the legitimacy of the NATO occupation of Afghanistan led to the problem of more to come on the agenda.
7) non-conventional forms of struggle has become a serious threat: cyber interventions (in Estonia or Wikileaks) or vs. the spread of nuclear materials.
Threat perceptions have diversified
Because of these reasons, and diversifying the threat of NATO's strategic concept alıgıları dissenting voices from within the alliance when the discussion can go. Because cyber-crime in some countries for considering intervention, an eyebrow and the other foreign powers, the traditional protection guarantees, some of them and request the protection of the nuclear deterrence forces. For this reason, discussion of missile shield, if one leaves aside the details, a large proportion of this common threat perception and the existence and legitimacy of NATO's agenda to discuss the rate of shade. Because, if you mount a defense, such as the controversial missile shield issue, so that everyone agrees that the threat would be expected to have. This junk does not mean that the issue of missile defense shield.
However, this debate brought the heat and the political divide, the real debate about Turkey's joining NATO and prevent the threat means that the debate is postponed. For this reason, the debate on missile shield as a symptom is important to the content of what it means.
We approach this point, short-or medium-range missiles missile shield against the very lack of an effective method (which is defended by the French in the first place, this issue), brings to mind other questions. Establishment of a defensive missile shield against intercontinental ballistic missiles with the first architecture to be reckless, those who still have such missiles, these missiles have the capacity to have countries within the next 10-20 years. This suggests that the missile shield, the fight over the medium term could lead to a global leadership dimensions are likely to do preparation for a transcontinental war brings the question. Here is one of the main issues to be discussed and the possibilities of such a case, Turkey will do what, how it may develop in preparation.
World trade control
Afghanistan is a different size of the subject. The NATO presence in Afghanistan continued to be accepted openly ermeyeceği recently ended. Therefore, clearly no longer be asked the following questions: Asia's rising power of 3 large, Russia, China and India, the NATO presence in a region very close to what you mean? Threats are expected within the next 20 years in this region, potential risks, political problems, social problems will be what? In the face of such problems may arise around this country and what NATO's role will be? Is this kind of conflict will reap its role in NATO?
Another important point is what the coming period is that when NATO's role in securing global trade routes. Some ramps will be the integral part of the missile shield deployment of ships (missile-defense missiles fired into the air in the hit rate is higher than the sea), not only as technical capability, as shown in the case of the fight against pirates off Somalia for the security of trade routes should be seen as an important trump card. Asia-Pacific axis of the shift in world trade, especially at a time when transatlantic axis, a transatlantic organization, NATO's role in Asia-Pacific Will there be? NATO will become a global security organization?
Global leadership struggle
Russia also strongly in an issue to be addressed. Keeping in mind the establishment of NATO against the USSR, if we look at reducing the power relations ideolojiilere, heir to the USSR, Russia, NATO enlargement is significant to be disturbed. Until 2008 the relationship was going to this axis. But Obama's relations with Russia again to address the power of the NATO-Russia cooperation in Afghanistan to continue the NATO enlargement in favor of the de facto freeze on Russia, Central Asia, the opening of the NATO-Russia cooperation areas can bring with it a possible Russian-US rapprochement.
NATO's mission and the power of such a convergence occurs, what happens? The effect of such a rapprochement in Asia other major powers (China-India), what happens, you also need to assess the framework of NATO (Turkey-China joint military exercise in the U.S. response be considered in this respect).
NATO's strategic concept and the debate on the future of NATO can not remain bigane Turkey. Belirginleştirdiği financial crisis of 2008 is now a global crisis of leadership, the restructuring of the UN, the G-20 on different institutions, such as trying to unravel. The discussion of the security pillar of the NATO missile shield in Turkey, unfortunately, a great misfortune in this respect was to remain in the shadow. On the other hand, the size of the global leadership of the struggle, the need to keep on mind that prevent this debate.
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